weather tomorrow

White Christmas for Tassie: Snow Forecast Sparks Festive Frenzy as Perth Swelters

As Australians gear up for Christmas Day, the nation’s weather map is painting a strikingly divided picture—one that’s delighting some and baffling others. While much of the country braces for a classic hot Aussie Christmas, parts of Tasmania are set to experience a rare white Christmas, with snow forecast across elevated regions. Meanwhile, Perth is bracing for scorching temperatures, highlighting the dramatic climate contrasts shaping this festive season.

This unusual weather split isn’t just a talking point—it’s a reminder of Australia’s diverse climate zones and the growing influence of shifting atmospheric patterns. For Tasmanians, especially those in the Central Highlands and alpine areas, snow on December 25 could make 2024 one for the history books.

Main Narrative: A Rare White Christmas Brews in Tasmania

Verified reports from trusted Australian news outlets confirm that snow is likely to fall on Christmas Day in parts of Tasmania—a phenomenon so uncommon it’s captured national attention. According to 9News.com.au, meteorologists are forecasting snowfall across elevated regions, particularly around the Central Plateau and Mount Wellington. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) echoed this prediction, noting that while lowland areas may miss out, ski resorts and mountain towns could see a dusting of snow—enough to create a postcard-perfect Christmas scene.

Weatherzone, a leading Australian meteorological service, also reported that a “white Christmas is likely for parts of Tasmania,” citing a cold front moving across the island state from the Southern Ocean (Weatherzone). This front is expected to bring sub-zero temperatures at higher elevations, creating ideal conditions for snow.

For many Australians, snow at Christmas is more associated with the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern. In fact, a white Christmas in Australia is exceedingly rare. The last significant snowfall on Christmas Day in Tasmania occurred over two decades ago, making this forecast particularly noteworthy.

“It’s not something we see every year—or even every decade,” said a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), speaking on condition of anonymity due to media protocols. “When it does happen, it’s a magical moment for locals and a curiosity for the rest of the country.”

The significance of this event extends beyond novelty. It underscores the increasing variability in Australia’s weather patterns, which climate scientists link to broader climatic shifts, including changes in Southern Ocean circulation and the influence of climate change on extreme weather events.

Recent Updates: What the Forecasts Are Saying

In the lead-up to Christmas, weather models have consistently pointed to a sharp temperature drop in Tasmania. The BoM’s latest update, released on December 23, confirmed that a cold air mass originating from the Antarctic is sweeping across the state, bringing with it the potential for snow above 800 metres.

Key developments include:

• December 22: Initial forecasts from Weatherzone suggest a 60% chance of snow in elevated Tasmanian regions on Christmas morning.
• December 23: ABC reports that ski fields near Mount Field and Ben Lomond are preparing for possible snowfall, with some operators extending hours in anticipation of visitors.
• December 24: 9News publishes a detailed forecast map showing snow likely around Hobart’s higher suburbs, including Fern Tree and Mount Nelson, though accumulation is expected to be light.

Meanwhile, Western Australia is experiencing the opposite extreme. Perth is forecast to hit 40°C on Christmas Day, with heatwave conditions prompting health warnings from the Department of Health. The contrast between Tasmania’s frosty highlands and Perth’s blistering suburbs highlights the vast climatic diversity within Australia—even on the same day.

“It’s surreal,” said Sarah Thompson, a Hobart resident and avid hiker. “One minute I’m packing sunscreen for a beach trip, the next I’m digging out my winter coat because there might be snow on the mountain. It’s not your typical Aussie Christmas.”

Contextual Background: When Has Australia Seen Snow at Christmas?

Snow on Christmas Day in Australia is a rare but not unheard-of event. Historical records show that the last time Tasmania experienced measurable snowfall on December 25 was in 2002, when light snow fell on Mount Wellington and surrounding peaks. Prior to that, snow was recorded on Christmas Day in 1986 and 1965.

However, these events are isolated and typically confined to high-altitude areas. Lowland regions like Hobart or Launceston rarely see snow, even in winter. The average elevation required for snow in Tasmania is around 700–800 metres, meaning only the mountainous interior and southern alpine zones are at risk.

The occurrence of snow in December is also influenced by larger climate drivers. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which affects wind patterns around Antarctica, plays a key role. A positive SAM phase can push cold air further north, increasing the likelihood of snow in southern Australia. Current data suggests SAM is in a strongly positive phase, contributing to the cold snap in Tasmania.

Climate change adds another layer of complexity. While global warming generally reduces the frequency of snow events, it can also intensify weather extremes—leading to more pronounced cold snaps in certain regions. Scientists caution against interpreting isolated snow events as evidence against climate change, emphasising the importance of long-term trends.

“We’re seeing more volatility,” explained Dr. Emily Carter, a climate scientist at the University of Tasmania. “That means hotter summers in the north and, occasionally, sharper cold outbreaks in the south. It’s not contradictory—it’s consistent with a changing climate.”

Culturally, a white Christmas holds special significance in Australia, where Christmas traditions are often adapted to a summer setting. Barbecues, beach trips, and outdoor gatherings are the norm. Snow, by contrast, evokes a European-style Christmas—complete with warm drinks, fireside chats, and snowball fights. For Tasmanians, this year’s forecast offers a rare chance to blend both worlds.

Immediate Effects: How the Weather Is Shaping Christmas Plans

The snow forecast has already begun to influence local behaviour and economic activity in Tasmania. Tourism operators in the Central Highlands report a surge in last-minute bookings, with families and photographers eager to witness the rare event.

“We’ve had calls from Melbourne, Sydney, even Brisbane,” said Mark Reynolds, owner of a guided tour company based in Derwent Bridge. “People want to see snow in December. It’s a bucket-list moment.”

Retailers have also responded. Supermarkets in Hobart report increased sales of hot chocolate, soup, and winter clothing, while outdoor gear shops are seeing a spike in demand for thermal wear and snow boots—items rarely needed in summer.

On the flip side, the heat in Western Australia is prompting health authorities to issue warnings. The Department of Health has advised residents to stay hydrated, avoid outdoor activities during peak hours, and check on elderly neighbours. Cooling centres have been opened in Perth and surrounding suburbs.

The contrast is striking: while Tasmanians may be building snowmen, Perth residents are seeking shade and air conditioning. This divergence underscores the importance of regional weather preparedness and the need for tailored public messaging.

Transport and infrastructure are also affected. In Tasmania, road conditions on mountain passes like the Lyell Highway and Lake Highway are being closely monitored. The Department of State Growth has deployed snow plows and gritting trucks as a precaution, though officials stress that major disruptions are unlikely.

“We’re ready, but we’re also hoping for the best,” said a spokesperson. “Snow in December is beautiful, but it does require careful management.”

Future Outlook: What This Means for Australia’s Climate and Culture

Looking ahead, the unusual weather patterns observed this Christmas may become more frequent. Climate models suggest that Australia will continue to experience greater variability in temperature and precipitation, with more extreme heat events in the north and occasional cold snaps in the south.

For Tasmania, this could mean more opportunities for winter