pat sabatini

Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal: UFC 322 Preview, Odds, and Prediction

Date: November 15, 2025 Event: UFC 322 Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs) Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

As the UFC calendar turns to November 2025, fight fans are gearing up for a stacked card at UFC 322. While the main event often grabs the headlines, the preliminary card is where the future stars of the sport grind it out. One of the most anticipated matchups on the undercard is a classic clash of styles between two gritty Featherweight contenders: Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal.

This bout pits Sabatini’s high-level grappling pedigree against Mariscal’s relentless pressure and striking output. For Australian MMA enthusiasts and bettors looking to get an edge, this breakdown covers everything from fighter backgrounds and recent form to official odds and expert predictions.

Fighter Profile: Pat Sabatini

"The Hardcore" enters the octagon looking to solidify his position in the Featherweight rankings. A veteran of the regional circuit and a former CFFC Featherweight Champion, Sabatini has built a reputation as one of the division's most dangerous submission artists.

Recent Form and Rebound

Pat Sabatini (17-5-0) is coming off a significant momentum shift. After suffering a rare first-round knockout loss to Julian Erosa in early 2024, Sabatini returned to the win column in emphatic fashion. In his most recent outing at UFC Fight Night 244 in October 2024, he faced Jonathan Pearce and secured a first-round submission victory.

Speaking after that win, Sabatini emphasized that his mental game was the key differentiator. He noted that moving past the knockout loss required a psychological reset, allowing him to return to his bread and butter: elite grappling. This rebound performance proved that "The Hardcore" is still a serious threat to anyone in the division.

Strengths and Strategy

• Grappling: Sabatini is a grappling specialist. With 12 of his 20 professional wins coming via submission, he is constantly hunting for chokes and joint locks.
• Takedowns: He averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy hovering around 50%. His chain wrestling is difficult to stop once he gets a hold of his opponent.
• Scrambling: Sabatini’s ability to scramble—transitioning from takedowns to dominant positions—is among the best in the division.
• Stance: Orthodox stance, standing 5'8" with a 70" reach.

Fighter Profile: Chepe Mariscal

"Machine" Chepe Mariscal (16-6-0) is the definition of a fighter who has earned his spot. Known for his high-output striking and never-say-die attitude, Mariscal has become a fan favorite for his exciting style.

The Merab Connection

Heading into UFC 322, Mariscal’s training camp has been a major talking point. According to reports from USA Today, Mariscal has been training alongside UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. Mariscal hopes that the "championship rounds" experience and high-level grappling pressure he faced in the gym with Merab will pay dividends against Sabatini. He believes that preparing for one of the best wrestlers in the sport will make Sabatini’s attack feel manageable by comparison.

Strengths and Strategy

• Striking Volume: Mariscal is known for throwing a high volume of strikes, often overwhelming opponents with pressure.
• Durability: He is incredibly tough and has shown the ability to absorb damage and keep coming forward.
• Stand-and-Bang: Unlike Sabatini, Mariscal prefers to keep the fight standing, utilizing his boxing and Muay Thai techniques to pick opponents apart.

The Tale of the Tape

Official Odds and Betting Analysis

According to the latest betting lines from the Action Network and other major sportsbooks, Pat Sabatini enters UFC 322 as the betting favorite.

• Pat Sabatini: -135
• Chepe Mariscal: +115

What the Odds Tell Us

The -135 line implies that Sabatini has a roughly 57% implied probability of winning. This is a relatively modest favorite status, suggesting that oddsmakers respect Mariscal’s ability to keep the fight standing and potentially secure a stoppage.

For Australian bettors, the value lies in the method of victory. Given Sabatini’s reliance on submissions, the odds for him to win by submission will likely be shorter than his moneyline. Conversely, Mariscal sits at +115, which is an attractive underdog price for a fighter with heavy hands and a gas tank to push the pace for three rounds.

Expert Prediction and Pick

Based on analysis from DraftKings Network, Action Network, and USA Today, the consensus leans toward Sabatini, but with significant caveats regarding Mariscal’s power.

The Breakdown

This fight is a quintessential "Grappler vs. Striker" matchup. The key battle will take place in the clinch and on the fence. Sabatini will look to close the distance, avoid Mariscal’s heavy right hand, and secure takedowns. Once the fight hits the mat, Sabatini’s submission game is on another level compared to Mariscal’s defensive grappling.

However, Mariscal is not an easy out. His training camp with Merab Dvalishvili suggests he has been sparring with world-class wrestlers. If Mariscal can stuff the initial takedown attempts and punish Sabatini on the entry with knees and uppercuts, he has the power to end the fight early.

The Prediction

Pat Sabatini is the more technically sound fighter in the wrestling department. While Mariscal has the striking advantage, the Featherweight division punishes pure strikers who cannot defend the takedown. Sabatini’s recent win over a tough grappler in Jonathan Pearce shows he is back in peak form.

Expect Sabatini to weather an early storm of strikes from Mariscal. Once he closes the distance, he will drag the fight to the canvas. From there, his top control and submission hunting will likely lead to a finish or a dominant decision.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini to Win Best Method of Victory: Submission

How to Watch UFC 322 (AU Viewers)

For fans in Australia, UFC 322 will be broadcast live on Kayo Sports and Main Event.

• Prelims: Available on UFC Fight Pass and Kayo Sports (Early morning start times for Australian Eastern Daylight Time).
• Main Card: Pay-per-view via Main Event or Kayo PPV.

Estimated Start Times (AEDT): * Prelims: Approx. 10:00 AM Sunday * Main Card: Approx. 12:00 PM Sunday

Final Thoughts

The Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal bout at UFC 322 is a litmus test for both men. For Sabatini, it is about proving that his submission game is still elite and that he can climb back into the rankings. For Mariscal, it is an opportunity to upset a recognized grappler and show that his work with the UFC Champion has elevated his game to the next level.

With the odds favoring Sabatini but the action leaning toward a competitive scrap, this is a must-watch fight for anyone interested in the technical nuances of mixed martial arts.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help. Odds are subject to change.